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1.2.1 Connected Vehicles - telematics

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车联网——远控驾驶、编队行驶、自动驾驶

5G Empowers Auto 2.0. The connected vehicle market is one of the highest growth areas of the Internet of Things, with potential application revenue of $253 billion by 2025 (per Machina Research). The Global Mobile Suppliers Association projects that by 2025 annual sales of connections for connected cars will reach 91 million units, while the total connected car universe will approach 527 million (over 40% of the global fleet of passenger cars and light trucks). The connected car concept goes far beyond simply linking a driver’s smartphone to navigation and infotainment systems, as key vehicle subsystems will become connected and enable vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2X) communications, autonomous driving, and generate a significant amount of user- and vehicle-related data. This data could include information about driving, vehicle functionality, security, location, infotainment settings, etc. Autonomous vehicles and connected car services will require next-generation connectivity with ultra-low latency, far greater bandwidth, and faster speeds than what’s offered from today’s networks. As a result, the industry with perhaps the most to gain from proliferation of 5G connectivity is the global automotive industry. Autonomous vehicles will require the processing power of 500 iPhone 7’s to generate an estimated 4,000 GB of valuable data per-day which can’t be supported on a large scale by current networks. Full autonomy could transform the car into a digital platform with monetization opportunities ranging from autonomous ride-sharing services to mobile, on-demand e-commerce. McKinsey estimates in an optimistic scenario that up to 15% of passenger cars could be fully autonomous in 2030, while connected car services could represent a $450-750 billion market.

Part of an autonomous vehicle’s neural network of sensors and processors includes other vehicles and surrounding infrastructure. V2V/V2X (vehicle-to-vehicle/infrastructure) communication provides an additional layer of safety and redundancy by providing real-time information that the vehicle’s onboard sensors can’t detect such as pedestrians around the corner or a traffic hazard a mile away. Currently, vehicle communication is achieved through Wi-Fi and a form of Wi-Fi called Dedicated Short-Range Communication (DSRC). Vehicle communication has only recently started to gain traction due to latency issues with previous networks and is expected to improve drastically with the proliferation of 5G connectivity. 5G networks are expected to offer peak data rates in excess of 10 Gbps, minimum user-experienced downlink data rates of 100 mbps, and sub-one millisecond of latency.

We believe the advantages from 5G networks will enable several automotive applications in Auto 2.0 including:

• Active Safety – V2V/V2X communication can provide real-time information-based services such as mapping data, optimized navigation, and real-time emergency assistance. Cities and regulators can also use V2X data to reduce traffic and congestion in high-density urban areas.
• Telematics 车辆网– Capturing real-time data on driver behavior and vehicle functionality will provide OEMs with a better understanding of a vehicle’s wear and tear as well as options for preventative maintenance.
• Over-the-Air (OTA) Software Updates – OTA updates facilitated by high-speed wireless connectivity can reduce warranty expenses by fixing software-related issues remotely. Automakers today spend nearly $50 billion a year on warranty costs and most of those issues are software-related that can be remedied through OTA updates. OEMs can also use OTA updates to provide add-on packages that customers can buy after the initial purchase of the vehicle.
• Platooning 编队行驶– Platooning is a V2V-based technology that allows heavy duty commercial vehicles to drive on highways in close distances behind one another, where the lead truck controls the braking functions of the rear trucks (with drivers in each truck). The close distances and coordinated braking reduces wind resistance, leading to a 5-10% reduction in fuel costs, which is pretty meaningful given fleet operators typically spend $30,000-40,000 a year on fuel costs per-truck in a low-single digit operating margin industry.
• Biometrics – Human Machine Interface (HMI) content such as seating, cameras, and sensors have the ability to monitor the vital signs (e.g. heart rate, fatigue, blood pressure) of a driver or passenger and alert the proper parties in real-time in the event of an emergency (e.g. driver heart attack, accident in a remote area).
• Insurance – Vehicle data would provide insurance companies with an even greater understanding of their customers driving behavior to more accurately price contracts and determine causes of accidents.
• Retail Services – Marketers can use vehicle data such as a driver’s current location and frequency of visits to a specific area to target advertisements directly to a vehicle’s infotainment system or the driver’s smart devices. This data would also provide retailers with valuable information on customer behavior and segmentation.

Who Benefits from 5G in the Auto Ecosystem? We expect the automotive megatrends of autonomy and connectivity will converge with the rollout of 5G in the 2019-2020 timeframe. Major automakers will continue to rely on technology-focused automotive suppliers to develop and integrate autonomous features and connected services within the next generation of their smart vehicles. Aptiv plc (APTV – NYSE) and Lear Corporation (LEA – NYSE) stand out as two suppliers well-positioned to capitalize on these emerging trends and have already amassed the technology portfolio to bridge the gap between Detroit and Silicon Valley.

Aptiv’s $3.4 billion revenue Active Safety & User Experience business is projected to grow 10% over global vehicle production through 2022, driven by continued growth in infotainment and connected services. The company’s competencies include data acquisition and edge processing, vehicle telematics, OTA software updates, data marketplace services, and V2V/V2X communication gateways and services. APTV is also developing open architecture autonomous driving platforms for various OEMs and ride-sharing companies and expects fully autonomous vehicles to provide an incremental $10 billion market opportunity by 2025.

Lear’s growing $4.6 billion revenue E-Systems business also stands to benefit from broader penetration of 5G-enabled connected car services. Lear’s connectivity portfolio of V2X communication systems, OTA, cellular, and software services provides up to $200 of incremental Content per Vehicle (CPV) in a $9 billion market by 2027. Looking farther out, autonomous vehicles could provide up to $2,000 of incremental CPV in a $50 billion market by 2035 from product capabilities such as vehicle positioning, data management/analytics, cyber security, AI/neural network, and seating biometrics.

Autonomous cars 自动驾驶

5G is absolutely essential to the future of autonomous cars. These vehicles will need to detect obstacles, interact with smart signs, follow precise maps and communicate with each other, even with cars made by other manufacturers.

Huge amounts of data will need to be transmitted and processed in real time in order to ensure passenger safety and only 5G is capable of providing the capacity, speed, low latency and security needed to bring millions of autonomous cars to the roads.

Not only do autonomous cars have the potential to reduce pollution and congestion and improve passenger safety, but they could also open up an entirely new market. As drivers become passengers, they will gain extra free time that they did not have, either to work or relax.

See also: What will 5G mean for businesses?

This could lead to new entirely new platforms and formats tailored to specific journey times. Intel describes this brand new sector as the ‘Passenger Economy’ and predicts that it will be worth a massive $7 trillion by 2050.

source: - https://www.information-age.com/5g-future-123472007/